The 3rd Anniversary of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: What’s Next?
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Ukraine split from the collapsing Soviet Union in 1991 and gained its independence. In 1994 Russia, the United States, Great Britain, France and China signed the Budapest Accords, which prohibited Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations."
Three years ago Russia violated international law and disrupted 75 years of peace in Central Europe by invading Ukraine. Most everyone predicted: “Kyiv will fall in a week, President Zelensky will flee, and the army will collapse.” Yet Ukraine has, with great leadership, bravery, ingenuity and tenacity, held off the world’s third largest army for 3 years. This failure to conquer its much smaller neighboring country has led Russia into converting its economy into full-blown wartime production, while sanctions have led to economic problems, with 10 percent inflation and 20 percent interest rates. Russia stands to lose a whole generation of young men, having sustained more than 850,000 killed and wounded while a million men have fled the country to avoid military service. Russia is using convicts, mercenaries, and now North Korean troops to continue its assaults.
The U.S. has supported Ukraine—but now, the new U.S. administration might end the support. How can we help support Ukraine, find an end to this death and destruction, and get the Russians to withdraw? The speakers will present their personal experiences, insights and predictions of the conflict.
About the Speakers
Dr. James Armstead taught and practiced international law for 50 years. He negotiated treaties for the United States, NATO and the United Nations. He served with the UN Secretariat as a visiting legal expert and edited the Treaty of Rome, which created the International Criminal Court. He has served on 19 university faculties in the United States, UK, France, South Africa and Ukraine, including Stanford, the University of California, Pepperdine, the University of London, and the U.S. Naval War College. He has written on the protection of cultural property and command responsibility within the military and is a recognized authority on the law of war and war crimes. During the past decade he has concentrated on Ukrainian strategic, international and defense issues.
Anastasia Edel is a Russian-born American writer and social historian. She is the author of Russia: Putin’s Playground: Empire, Revolution, and the New Tsar. Her prose has appeared in The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, The Los Angeles Times, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Project Syndicate, Quartz, and World Literature Today.
Dr. Michael Baker recently retired from a 40-year career in general, vascular and trauma surgery. He also served 30 years in the uniform of his country and retired with the rank of rear admiral, having earned a Combat Action Ribbon and 3 Legion of Merit Awards among and others. He currently teaches history, political science and military affairs for the Osher LifeLong Learning (OLLI) Programs at UC Berkeley, Dominican University, Cal State East Bay, and other programs—and is on the Board of Governors of Commonwealth Club World Affairs. He teaches Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) at military bases around the world and most recently returned from his 5th tour in Ukraine teaching ATLS to physicians in that war-torn nation.
This program is in-person only. If you have symptoms of illness (coughing, fever, etc.), we ask that you either stay home or wear a mask. Our front desk has complimentary masks for members and guests who would like one.
Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California is a nonprofit public forum; we welcome donations made during registration to support the production of our programming.
An East Bay Chapter program. Chapters and forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, and they cover a diverse range of topics.
Commonwealth Club World Affairs is a public forum. Any views expressed in our programs are those of the speakers and not of Commonwealth Club World Affairs.
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Lafayette Public Library
Don Tatzin Auditorium
3491 Mt. Diablo Boulevard
Lafayette, CA 94549
United States
Dr. James Armstead
,J.D., Ph.D., LL.D., D.Litt., D.H.L.(hc); Retired Professor, U.S. Naval War College
Michael Baker
M.D., Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (ret)
Anastasia Edel
Author, Russia: Putin’s Playground: Empire, Revolution, and the New Tsar
6:15 p.m. doors open an check-in
6:30–8 p.m discussion & Q&A
(all times Pacific Time)
COST
In-person:
$10 members
$15 nonmembers
Free for students